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The addition of data centers has led these companies, which are also among the largest energy merchants, to plan on expanding their generation fleet and the amount of load that they intend to serve.

Independent analysis supports the trend.

PJM’s annual load is forecast to rise by 72% by 2046, mainly because of data centers, McKenzie Fowler, director of energy modeling at consultant Yes Energy, said in a webinar last month.

Installed capacity is expected to rise to 400 GW in 2046 from about 220 GW now, according to one scenario by the firm.

PJM still will be powered largely by thermal generation, but renewables are growing significantly, Fowler said. Gas-fired peaking and combined cycle units are replacing old coal plants along with new solar, wind and storage assets.

Some of the large merchants plan staggering load additions.

NRG Energy has about 10 GW of generating capacity in PJM. The company told investors it plans to add 5.4 GW of new gas turbines, while an opportunity exists for 2 GW of uprates.

“Projected [PJM] demand growth is materially ahead of the supply currently expected to come online,” NRG CEO Robert Gaudette said.

Utility holding company AEP, which has regulated markets in PJM and Texas, expect a 70% increase in its rate base through 2030.

The company has contracted for 18 GW of PJM load growth by 2030, mostly for data centers. The deals are backed 100% by letters of agreement, and 95% of the power supply has electric service agreements.

The customers include data centers in Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio and Indiana, and a Nucor Steel manufacturing plant in West Virginia. Almost two-thirds of AEP’s future load growth will be for Indiana Michigan Power.

Many of these companies frame their efforts as national in scope. The energy resources arm of NextEra Energy has a base case goal of adding 15 GW to serve large load by 2035, and an upside case of 30 GW, CEO John Ketchum told investors.

The company last month “executed a definitive agreement” to provide power to the South Mon “federal hub” in Pennsylvania. The $17 billion generation project is expected to bring another 4.3 GW of gas-fired capacity to PJM.

President Donald Trump approved the project, selected in connection with a $550 billion investment commitment by Japan.

While not naming the off-taker, Ketchum said this was part of NextEra’s strategy to support the growth of digital infrastructure for companies that can bring their own generation. The location for the facility in southwestern Pennsylvania has yet to be announced, but South Mon may refer to an area near the Monongahela River. Operations are expected to begin in 2032.

“We now have 30 potential data center hubs we are discussing with the market, and we continue to expect that number to rise to 40 by year end,” Ketchum said.

UGI Energy Services said in May that it will commit more than $100 million to develop natural gas infrastructure in Pennsylvania’s northern tier for Prime Data Centers to develop a campus. Natural gas demand is expected to surpass 100,000 dekatherms/day in three to five years, a high quantity for a single customer location.

Constellation Energy has yet to follow its peers with new builds. “PJM cycle 1 interconnection studies will increase visibility into the timing of new generation supply,” the company said.

Vistra Energy, which acquired significant PJM assets from other merchant generators in the past year, is another company with a large retail book that lacks construction plans.

Financial Expectations Look Attractive

These companies consistently advance a compelling investment narrative around both their plans to build generation assets and the development of their retail power books.

NRG Energy said that as PJM around-the-clock prices exceed $53/MWh this year, the company’s hedge ratio falls and gross margins expand.

Over the long term, NRG said that successful execution of its new build strategy could create a contracted cash flow base of $2.9 billion, which greater than its current annual free cash flow.

The company seeks 15-year contracts for sales of output from new combined cycle gas turbines, with 95% of the project’s free cash flow supported by capacity payments.

AEP’s commercial and industrial revenues for the six months ending June 30 were up 15% over the same period a year ago, strengthened by minimum demand charges in data center and large load customer agreements. That large load growth has allowed AEP to reduce rates for regulated customers of AEP Ohio and Indiana Michigan Power.

Constellation’s portfolio is rooted in PJM, with generation assets spun out of utility Exelon in 2022.

The company said its “commercial business was outperforming plan” for the second quarter, with higher realized customer margins.

Average commercial margins could rise in 2029 by 25¢/MWh to 50¢/MWh, which will add $50 million to $100 million to free cash flow upside before growth.

Not to be Taken for Granted

Looking deeper at the contributions of retail energy to publicly traded companies, outcomes can be constrained.

NRG Chief Financial Officer Bruce Chung said increased second quarter earnings were driven primarily by the acquired portfolio of LS Power, higher PJM capacity values and continued growth in Smart Home services, a home energy and security management effort.

Vistra said it expected annual energy growth in PJM of around 2% to 3% this year.

Earnings from its retail business for the second quarter were $773 million, up 2.2% from the same quarter a year earlier.

Year-to-date retail earnings at Vistra were $841 million for 2026 after the second quarter, down 10.5% from the same period in 2025.

Upside drivers through next year include future power purchase agreements and the potential improvement in power market fundamentals.

Similarly, the energy solutions arm of utility PSEG is expected to provide upside. The company foresees potential growth beyond the forecasted 6% to 8% compound annual growth rate.

PSEG suggested this could be achieved through new contracts, the sale of existing and planned additions of nuclear output above current market prices and investments to connect solar and battery storage resources.

AltaGas said WGL Holdings had “strong year-over-year retail margins” in the second quarter. Retailer WGL Energy is part of the holding company.

Revenue decreased at retailer Genie Energy by 4.6% in the second quarter, but gross profit rose 43% to $33.7 million and gross margin increased 11.2 percentage points.

Income from operations at Genie in the second quarter was up 182% to $6.5 million. The company said it increased its acquisition spend and gained more higher value customers in the quarter.

The company reported a churn rate of 5.9% in the second quarter compared with 4.8% in a year earlier.