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White Paper Aims to Optimize REC Settlement Structure
Focusing on shape and basis risk
On July 1, 2026 Staff and NYSERDA filed a white paper on optimizing the index REC settlement structure .
The white paper proposal focuses on addressing shape risk and basis risk. To address shape risk, the proposal would replace the current around-the-clock average zonal price with a technology output-weighted zonal price based on when specific technologies, such as solar and wind, actually generate electricity. The change would apply to future Index REC and Index OREC contracts, with existing contract holders offered a one-time opportunity to convert to the new methodology and an adjusted strike price. To address basis risk, the proposal would set REC payments at $0.01/MWh during any hour in which a project’s day-ahead or real-time nodal LBMP falls below zero, reducing incentives for deeply negative market bids and encouraging development in less-constrained areas. The White Paper also seeks feedback on a potential “last in, first out” mechanism that would place greater curtailment risk on newly developed projects to improve locational signals. Overall, Staff and NYSERDA estimate the proposals could generate $4 billion to $9 billion in ratepayer savings over the next 20 years.
The Draft 2026 Clean Energy Standard Biennial Review finds that New York’s clean energy transition is being shaped by rapidly increasing electricity demand, interconnection and transmission constraints, and permitting challenges. Electricity demand is expected to grow significantly due to data centers, large manufacturing projects, and continued transportation and building electrification, with NYISO’s forecast for 2030 load increasing by approximately 10% between 2020 and 2026. The report notes that interconnection timelines and upgrade costs continue to slow the deployment of new generation resources. In response, NYISO implemented a new cluster study process in 2024 and proposed additional reforms for the 2026 Cluster Study to improve transparency, reduce ambiguity, and manage project withdrawals more effectively. The NYPSC has also established minimum project maturity requirements for participation in future Tier 1 solicitations. Transmission constraints remain a major barrier to renewable deployment due to increasing congestion, curtailment risk, and interconnection costs. To address these challenges, New York has approved approximately $8 billion in transmission investments and continues to advance projects such as Smart Path Connect, Propel New York, and the Coordinated Grid Planning Process to support renewable integration and grid reliability. The report also highlights efforts to streamline permitting through the Office of Renewable Energy Siting and Electric Transmission and the RAPID Act. The report further recognizes the need to balance renewable energy development with agricultural land preservation and notes that agrivoltaics and other mitigation measures can help support both clean energy deployment and farming activities.
On July 2, 2026, Advanced Energy United filed comments in support NYSERDA’s request to backfill CES-funded staff vacancies in 2026 but contend that additional Tier 1 staffing is needed. The comments argued that current staffing levels are insufficient to manage growing responsibilities, including renewable procurements, project oversight, and contract administration, particularly as electricity demand and renewable procurement needs to continue to increase. The comments urged the NYPSC to treat the backfill request as a minimum staffing level and consider expanding NYSERDA’s workforce and funding to support the State’s clean energy goals and maximize federal funding opportunities.
NYSERDA and Staff must file a final Zero Emissions Credit Implementation Plan by July 12, 2026.
Parties must submit comments on the Clean Energy Zones Program white paper by August 10, 2026.

